However for so long as pigs do not fly, the true competitors is between the incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki of the Peoples Democratic Pary (PDP), and Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the All Progressives’ Congress (APC).
The competitors is simply the identical because it was within the 2016 election gained by Obaseki; solely that this time, each have swapped platforms.
Obaseki gained 4 years in the past with the APC and was a member of the occasion till two weeks in the past earlier than he crossed to the PDP, whereas Ize-Iyamu jumped from the PDP ship to return to the APC in November 2019.
What has modified since 2016 for this Freaky Friday swap to occur? Nigerian politics.
Extra particularly, on this explicit case, one man – Adams Oshiomhole, a former Edo governor and lately sacked nationwide chairman of the APC, pulled the strings.
It was Oshiomhole’s resolution to again Obaseki as his successor that pushed Ize-Iyamu out of the APC to the PDP six years in the past.
And after Oshiomhole fell out with Obaseki, Ize-Iyamu is believed to have returned to the APC with the previous governor’s blessings who additionally performed an influential position within the drama cleared the trail for him to select up the APC’s ticket, and pushed Obaseki out.
It is maybe essential to preface this with the truth that leaping from one occasion to a different will not be a peculiar trait of solely Nigerian politicians – it occurs all all over the world, though with a lot much less frequency.
Nigerian politicians have merely perfected the artwork of political scheming that leaping ship is a really distinguished function of the nation’s political tradition.
That is why the common Nigerian politician has been a member of at the least two events – journeymen with no easy-to-nail-down values that set them aside, or can be utilized to carry them to account on the kind of contradictory affiliation they’re sure to finally hold.
A Nigerian politician with Get together A can brashly name everybody in Get together B thieves within the morning, after which grow to be a member of the identical Get together B within the night and reverse course.
For good measure, such a politician can then return to Get together A one week later and do nearly the identical shameless dance.
Ask Dino Melaye who ditched the PDP for the APC and gained a seat within the Senate in 2015, earlier than ditching the APC for a return to the PDP to contest for a second time period within the 2019 election.
His predominant opponent each instances was Sensible Adeyemi, the present occupant of the seat, who additionally deserted the PDP after his 2015 loss and joined the APC, contributing in some half to Melaye’s exit.
The prevalence of this follow has for years been a supply of concern for a lot of observers who’re frightened that it creates an air of instability that has continued to harm Nigeria’s democracy.
That is why, no matter what they are saying, Nigerians can’t be satisfied that their leaders are that a lot totally different from each other in any actual sense, whether or not they’re proclaiming change or banking on a doubtful current historical past they hope the general public has forgotten.
Nigeria has ‘loved’ 21 uninterrupted years of democracy, however its political events have but to grow to be sturdy sufficient establishments able to reconciling their core values with who flies their flags for elections. It is an anywhere-belle-face scenario.
These events, each previous and new, have settled for being mere political autos to accommodate folks with pursuits which might be related solely for so long as it takes for battle to interrupt out, whether or not that is one month or shut to each election season.
As lately as final yr, the Edo State PDP was accusing Obaseki of the “rape of democracy” for the “unconstitutional” elimination of some council chairpersons within the state.
He is instantly a knight in shining armour one yr later as a result of the occasion is determined to recapture the state.
The way in which occasion defections occur in Nigeria would make the unsuspecting individual imagine there aren’t any recognized legal guidelines surrounding how the method ought to work.
And despite the fact that its stand on occasion defection will not be complete sufficient, the 1999 Structure (as amended) does set some guidelines for a selected sort of indiscriminate leaping of ships.
Part 68 (1)(g) and Part 109 (1)(g) stipulate {that a} lawmaker within the Nationwide Meeting and State Meeting, respectively, should give up their seat in the event that they resolve to desert the occasion on whose platform they have been elected.
The one approach such a lawmaker can retain their seat is that if the rationale for his or her defection was resulting from inner disaster within the occasion they deserted, or if the occasion merged with one other one.
This provision of the structure is infrequently enforced for erring lawmakers, and makes an attempt to use it in Nasarawa, Akwa-Ibom, Imo, Kaduna, and Kogi over the previous two years have been controversial and largely ineffective.
Lawmakers who would slightly keep away from the effort have been noticed to fabricate an inner disaster or capitalise on a minor one to justify their defections, so the structure’s stand on defection is weak and constantly weakened.
However, as a type of self-preservation, political events themselves have created legal guidelines to regulate defections.
The commonest is {that a} defector (or anybody, actually) has to have been a member of a celebration for a minimal time period, normally one yr, earlier than they will contest for workplace on that occasion’s platform.
Since many high-profile defections are motivated mainly by the will to contest on a unique platform, this might be thought of an efficient filter to stem the follow.
However that is Nigeria, and loopholes are as deliberate because the legal guidelines themselves, so a celebration’s nationwide management can be allowed to grant a waiver to a defector to ignore that specific roadblock.
When Ize-Iyamu defected to the APC final yr, the Edo PDP chairperson, Dan Orbih, urged political events to tighten guidelines towards defectors.
“I feel if we try this, it can deliver sanity to the political construction of our occasion in order that we do not breed political gamblers,” he mentioned.
Days after Obaseki defected to the PDP, the occasion granted him a waiver which paved the best way for him to grow to be its flag bearer, sidelining different less-influential aspirants that had been hoping and dealing to win the ticket.
Ize-Iyamu was equally granted the identical handy waiver by the APC’s nationwide management beneath Oshiomhole’s path, simply weeks earlier than his committee was unceremoniously sacked.
So, it’s secure to say that the one motive we presently have an Obaseki versus Ize-Iyamu match-up in Edo is as a result of politicians and political events will bend the legal guidelines backwards only for political expedience. Get together values, political order, and the most effective pursuits of the folks can battle for different obtainable spots, in the event that they like.
The foremost motive for this explicit drawback is easy – in Nigerian politics, the winner takes all, and the loser will get a comically dangerous track made about them by Dino Melaye.
And, extra importantly, the motivation to achieve political energy is notably excessive as a result of the perks of being a Nigerian political workplace holder are near-limitless.
So, when events contest in elections, they normally will tackle candidates that current the most effective possibilities of victory, whatever the unsavoury strategies that have to be employed to clear the trail for them.
And candidates are all the time in search of the place to money of their chips no matter who they should affiliate with.
Whereas this can not, after all, be classed as an issue by itself – in spite of everything, profitable is the entire level – that perspective and the tradition it has fueled has forged a really disruptive cloud over politics and, extra worryingly, governance in Nigeria.
As a result of defections could make or break a celebration’s construction immediately, it has been extremely tough for Nigerian political events to develop sturdy inner democracies that may reconcile warring pursuits in a extra constructive method.
Anybody with any little bit of affect can, and do normally, desire to hit the nuclear choice that continues to undermine integrity within the nation’s political establishments.
Within the huge image, those self same folks can’t be relied upon to create essentially the most environment friendly democratic techniques for Nigeria and Nigerians as soon as they’re in authorities, and that’s one thing the nation desperately wants.
Political events within the nation want an important retooling that makes defection a really rarely-considered choice as seen in older, extra established democracies.
The one drawback is the folks in essentially the most strategic positions to trigger that change are additionally the identical folks presently benefiting from the chaos.
And so the horsetrading will proceed, and Nigerian politicians will hold juggling umbrellas and brooms and the occasional cockerel that crows.
Obaseki and Ize-Iyamu are presently within the highlight, and there are dozens extra ready in line to reap from a system that encourages the corruption of processes, not essentially for the development of the folks, simply their very own private ambitions.
____
Pulse Editor’s Opinion is the opinion of an editor at Pulse. It would not characterize the views of the organisation Pulse.
Supply: www.pulse.ng
